+169+42+3+0
+PointsMarginal roster value
Green is stronger; red signals excess draft capital at that position.
01 / Model boundary
Use draft data, not player takes.
Draft slot sets the expected score. Team, position, format, schedule, and your roster create the answer.
Enters DOGMATH
Draft round and cost
Baseline value.
15 years of defensive metrics
Historical team-position schedule signal.
NFL team and position
The weekly schedule curve.
Scoring format
Site-specific scoring.
Position variance
Realistic RB, WR, TE, and QB ranges.
Your roster
Slots, weekly strengths, and playoff paths already owned.
Does not enter DOGMATH
Expert rankings
No analyst consensus.
Imported player projections
No outside projection feed.
Same cost, different fit.Similar draft slots can separate because their schedules complement your roster differently.
02 / Weekly projection engine
A draft slot becomes 17 weekly outcomes.
Fifteen years of year-over-year defensive metrics produce a weekly team-position environment. Draft round sets the baseline; schedule and position variance create the floor and ceiling.
15-year defensive history→Weekly position environment→Draft cost + variance→Weekly outcome
- Stacked weekly projection
- Optimized full-roster score for each week.
- Position breakdown
- The same score split into RB, WR, TE, and QB.
- TEAM total
- All nine playable lineup slots evaluated together.
RB316
WR428
TE118
QB244
TEAM1106
W1Regular seasonW17
03 / Roster optimization
The roster decides what the next player is worth.
DOGMATH solves the slots already drafted, adds each candidate, and measures the difference. The same player can have different value for two rosters.
Optimized score
roster + candidate − Optimized score
current roster = Points added
to this build
roster + candidate − Optimized score
current roster = Points added
to this build
Floor added →Ceiling added →
Floor added →Ceiling added →
X-axisFloor added
Optimal-scoring points added across the season.
Y-axisCeiling added
Shared high-scoring environments with the roster.
RB / WR / TE / QBPosition charts
Each team-position schedule tested against that group.
TEAMPosition-agnostic chart
Each team tested across all nine lineup slots.
W15 1.5W16 3.0W17 6.0
Direct matchupFirst overlapSecond overlap
04 / Playoff correlation
Map the playoff matchups behind Weeks 15‑17.
Playoff correlation maps matchup connections for Weeks 15-17 game stacks. Each direct matchup receives the selected week weight, then DOGMATH follows two more overlap layers. It is separate from weekly game-environment scores.
- Direct matchup
- Your roster's playoff opponents.
- First overlap
- Matchups attached to those opponents.
- Second overlap
- The next connected matchup layer.
Bars show depth. Labels show state.Light blue is drafted; red is searched. Neither is a matchup grade.
05 / Output language
One color system connects the Solver and Premium Extension.
Position colors identify the model. Signal colors show value, correlation, stack state, or market movement.
QBPurple
RBTeal
WRGold
TEBlue
17 DAL16 DET15 CLE
Playoff namesRoster correlation
Green is direct, purple is QB-linked, and gray has no visible connection.
5 ★3.5 ★1 ★
Star scoreYour weighted rank
Floor, Ceiling, Playoff +/-, and Playoff Cor combined from 0 to 5.
TEAMSTACKSTACK
TEAM / STACKConstruction state
TEAM marks a team drafted. STACK marks QB links; outlines show larger stacks.
▲ 0.8
40.4▼ 1.3
42.5
40.4▼ 1.3
42.5
Seven-day ADPMarket context
Direction, movement, and current ADP. It does not change DOGMATH's score.
1720313411Site14%
ExposureOwnership context
SITE or CONTEST ownership, plus combo exposure with your Round 1-4 picks. Exposure never changes DOGMATH's score.
06 / Premium ranking weights
DOGMATH exposes the choice instead of hiding it.
Premium lets you weight each lane. UD Default is 0.50 Floor, 0.20 Ceiling, 0.10 Playoff +/-, and 0.20 Playoff Cor. Profiles 1-3 are saved by site. Weights must total 1.00.
WeightWhat it rewardsImportant context
Floor
Weak-week points added.
Rewards stability.Ceiling
Shared high-scoring environments.
Rewards spike-week upside.Playoff +/-
Floor and ceiling for Weeks 15-17.
Uses DOGMATH schedule strength.Playoff Cor
Connected playoff matchup paths.
Week values are saved by contest.Site strategy, contest context.Rank profiles load by site. Week 15-17 values load by contest.
Before a position is drafted
Premium uses the position-agnostic TEAM model.
As the position fills
The comparison becomes position-specific.
Conflicting signals
DOGMATH shows the tradeoff; no single pill is a command.
Exposure Lab boundary
Ownership is context, not an input.
Exposure Lab measures synced teams by site, contest, opening picks, and player combinations. Its percentages never change the Solver.
Model limits
A decision model, not a promise.
DOGMATH tests what each pick adds consistently. It cannot guarantee performance, results, or winnings.